Why uncertainty in community livelihood adaptation is important for adaptive delta management: A case study in polders of Southwest Bangladesh

To deal with large uncertainties about future climate and socio-economic developments, planners in deltas are adopting an integrative adaptive planning approach referred to as Adaptive Delta Management (ADM). Bangladesh has used the ADM for development of its plan; Plan 2100 (BDP 2100). The success policy strategies delta plan critically depends on a specific adaptation livelihoods local communities (Community Livelihood Adaptation; CLA), especially agriculture-oriented society like Bangladesh. For example, while triple rice cropping might be evaluated robust strategy all futures considered, eventually whether farmers’ will actually make that choice, which is deeply uncertain. In this paper, we use literature review, insights from interviews field observations examine how uncertainty CLA impacts (adaptive) management. We study two historical cases livelihood farmer confronted salinization waterlogging polders southwest since 1960s. conclude historically been ignored plans, leading failure anticipated outcomes. recommend other worldwide take account when developing long-term plans.